This is an interesting read on forecasting and how predictions are made. It examines a number of real world examples, outlining what went right, what went wrong, and how the process can be improved.
There are a number of ways that one can improve the quality of their forecasts, ranging from knowing which questions to avoid, which data to try and focus on, and how to go back and re-evaluate your predictions.
This book falls right in line with Thinking, Fast and Slow by Daniel Kahneman, so fans of that book would find this one interesting as well. As least that’s what I predict!
Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction by Philip E. Tetlock
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